Futures Studies of Iran's Sports Diplomacy in Light of Potential Agreements

This research aimed to forecast Iran's sports diplomacy in light of possible agreements. The research method is based on Shell scenario planning, which enables the creation of data-driven narratives without predetermined categorizations. The study population included officials from the Ministry of Sports and Youth, members of the National Olympic Committee, representatives from national sports federations (particularly in major or medal-winning sports such as football, wrestling, volleyball, basketball, etc.), international athletes and coaches, and faculty members in sports management, political science and international relations with relevant research backgrounds. Using theoretical sampling and reaching theoretical saturation after 19 interviews, key driving forces were identified and ranked. These forces include: international political and diplomatic developments, technology and innovation in sports, regional competitions and sports geopolitics, socio-cultural developments, environmental sustainability and green technologies, and global economy and foreign investment. Four probable scenarios for Iran's sports diplomacy future were identified: Green Dawn, Sanctions Storm, Sports Silk Road, and Smart Isolation. Each scenario demonstrates a different combination of influential factors and leads to diverse strategies. Results indicate that given the continuation of sanctions and the improbability of rapid agreement with the West, a combination of two strategic scenarios is recommended: "Sports Silk Road" (short-to-medium term) and "Smart Isolation" (medium-to-long term).